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71.
Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Shun-Chung LeeAuthor Vitae Li-Hsing Shih Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(7):1242-1253
This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research. 相似文献
72.
文章基于我国1997-2009年省级面板数据,采用数据本身隐含信息进行内分组的面板平滑转移模型来检验财政支出与经济增长之间的非线性效应,并进一步拓展了Armey曲线推论。研究发现,我国省级政府财政一般预算支出规模和财政支出结构均与经济增长之间存在Armey曲线所描绘的非线性效应,其中财政一般预算支出最优规模为9.32%,财政支出最优结构为1.643,并且财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构都在最优值两侧对经济增长的影响具有不对称性,相比而言,财政一般预算支出规模的转换速度似乎更快。这意味着现阶段我国财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构不合理,需要政府提高财政支出效率。 相似文献
73.
流通业增加值占GDP比重变化规律研究——基于我国省级面板数据的实证分析及理论解释 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
在经济发展过程中,流通业增加值占GDP比重的变化规律很少受到关注。2001年,Anderson和Betancourt指出流通业增加值占GDP的比重和经济增长的长期关系呈倒U型,并运用跨国面板数据进行了实证分析,但没有给出理论解释。选取我国各省1993-2008年的数据,建立静态面板数据模型,对流通业比重和经济发展水平的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明我国流通业比重存在先升后降的倒U型规律。将流通服务看作流通部门的产出,构建流通部门的CES生产函数,对这一规律进行了理论解释。研究启示是:流通业比重变化存在客观规律,不能因流通业属于传统服务业而忽视甚至试图降低其在GDP中的比重,需要遵循这一规律,为服务业结构优化和升级提供相应的政策支持。 相似文献
74.
75.
《The Scandinavian economic history review / [the Scandanavian Society for Economic and Social History and Historical Geography]》2012,60(2):101-127
Abstract The historiography of mercantilism has been described as a series of disconnected still pictures which reflect the shifting viewpoints of economic thought.1 However, historians have favoured different concepts of mercantilism not only in response to the shifts of economic science but also because they have held, explicitly or implicitly, different opinions on the problem of how economic ideas are formed and of the role they have played in historical development. The following reexamination of some of those ‘stills’ concentrate on such differences.2 相似文献
76.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(1):3-22
Summary Previous studies of the vertical arrangement of land uses within the central areas of cities have been few, incomplete and employed crude methods of analysis. The present study employs 24 categories of land uses and analyses their distribution over 50 floor levels in Sydney's central district. To model the data, the gamma distribution is employed, being a flexible curve type. With only trifling exceptions, this distribution represents the data remarkably well. The two parameters of the fitted curves are interpreted as: (a) a measure of the propensity of a use to be accommodated over a wide range of floor levels, and (b) as a measure of resistance to height. The values of the parameters are used to define, using a clustering algorithm, groups of uses having members characterized by the most similar floor level arrangement. The results are of major importance for three reasons: First, the degree of regularity in the way establishments seek locations in the height dimension has not been discovered before. Second, the gamma‐distribution offers utility in modelling vertical location and should be useful in testing aspects of different town planning policies on plot ratios. Third, draconian town planning restrictions imposed on height controls may introduce locational inefficiencies hitherto unsuspected. 相似文献
77.
本文认为,较之资本结构,资产结构的研究更具实际应用价值和普适意义,它们才是创造公司价值和抵御各项风险的源泉。基于此,本文试图从逻辑和实证两个角度评价资产结构与企业绩效之间的关系,并希望通过评价实证结论的相关性程度,来求得各变量之间的函数方程式。在此基础上,本文再分别进行各变量的曲线拟合,试图通过在建立拟合方程模型的基础上,求出其最优资产配置值。 相似文献
78.
Francisco H. G. Ferreira Anna Fruttero Phillippe G. Leite Leonardo R. Lucchetti 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2013,64(1):151-176
Food price inflation in Brazil in the 12 months to June 2008 was 18%, whereas overall inflation was 7%. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage‐earning agricultural labour force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. Although the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, estimates of the market‐income effect were positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U‐shaped, with middle‐income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, as Brazil is 80% urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level. 相似文献
79.
This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of the Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities across 60 countries over the period 1972-2004. This relationship hypothesizes that the number of road fatalities increases with increasing motorization in the early stages of economic growth. Eventually, due to advances in technical, policy and political institutions, it declines as per capita income increases. The quality of political institutions as well as improvements in medical care and technology are hypothesized to impact road fatalities. Results indicate evidence of a Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities for both highly developed and less developed countries and support our hypothesis that changes in institutional quality and medical improvements underlie the Kuznets relationship. The evidence presented in this study suggests that lowering corruption levels as well as improvements in medical care and technology would help to reduce road fatalities. 相似文献
80.
能源碳排放与环境污染空间效应研究——基于能源强度与技术进步视角的空间杜宾计量模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文基于空间环境库兹涅茨曲线理论探讨经济发展约束下能源强度和技术进步对大气环境的空间效应作用机理,采用探索性空间分析工具、经典最小二乘估计(OLS)、空间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)和空间杜宾--可拓展随机性环境影响评估模型(Spatial Durbin-STIRPAT Models)探索能源碳排放与大气环境污染的空间格局和空间溢出效应。实证估计结果表明,能源碳排放与空气环境污染在空间分布上表现出空间正相关性和空间集聚效应;能源强度与技术进步对能源碳排放与大气环境的空间溢出效应显著。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。 相似文献